October 3, 2022
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Ask me about the best-actress race in an hour, and I might need a wholly completely different lineup for you. I really feel pretty bullish on Kidman, Colman and Gaga, however there are such a lot of possible contenders vying for these final two spots that I preserve tearing up my projections and beginning anew.

Hudson and Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) had been each nominated by SAG, however their biopics haven’t proven quite a lot of endurance. Alana Haim (“Licorice Pizza”) and Rachel Zegler (“West Facet Story”) are main extra acclaimed motion pictures, however a winter compromised by the coronavirus hasn’t given Oscar voters quite a lot of face time with both ingénue. And if I had my method, there can be two sure slots for Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Moms”) and Renate Reinsve (“The Worst Particular person in the World”), however they by no means fairly constructed the momentum they wanted this season.

Folks had been shocked when Stewart was snubbed by SAG, however I’ve a hunch she’ll nonetheless make it in: The 31-year-old actress is due for her first nomination, and he or she’s been hustling arduous, displaying as much as nearly each round-table interview and Q&A for “Spencer.” Of the remaining contenders, I’ll play it protected and predict SAG nominee Hudson, who delivers her most subtle efficiency but in “Respect.”

Finest Supporting Actor

Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza”
Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Energy of the Canine”
Jared Leto, “Home of Gucci”

Smit-McPhee’s efficiency as Kirsten Dunst’s artful son is a shoo-in, since by the finish of “The Energy of the Canine,” he’s emerged as the film’s stealth protagonist. A prosthetics-laden Leto does the kind of high-voltage transformation in “Home of Gucci” that voters love, even when critics are tempted to sneer. And Kotsur’s response photographs energy the emotional third act of “CODA”: His daughter is pulling away, but now he understands her greater than ever.

Some thought Cooper’s two-scene position in “Licorice Pizza” could be too small for Oscar recognition, however he made the SAG lineup and it’s enormously flashy work from a frequent nominee. Ben Affleck additionally snagged a SAG nod, nevertheless it was for “The Tender Bar,” which isn’t thought-about a significant Oscar contender. I’d drop Affleck for a supporting efficiency from the higher tier of best-picture nominees, and of that pool — which incorporates Jesse Plemons (“The Energy of the Canine”) in addition to Hinds and Jamie Dornan (“Belfast”) — I’m choosing Hinds, a veteran actor due for his first nomination.

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